Politcs (Page 32)

On “This Week,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver breaks down odds for the upcoming Georgia runoff election.Continue Reading

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES For Democrats, the Silver State is gold: ABC News has reported that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is projected to win reelection in Nevada. This projection confirms that Democrats will retain at least 50 seats in the U.S. Senate and, with Vice PresidentContinue Reading

Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned fromContinue Reading

ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER On Monday, I wrote about my three key questions heading into Election Day. I’ll address the first two — about polling error and turnout — at length once results are a bit more final. But the third question, about whether candidate quality would matter, is theContinue Reading

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES / REUTERS A midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president would seem like a ripe time for Republicans to pick up some governorships. But it looks like Democrats were actually the ones to gain ground in state capitals this year. As of 7:30Continue Reading

ILLUSTRATION BY JOEY ELLIS Election Day is finally upon us, and we’re “right back where we started from,” to borrow a phrase from Maxine Nightingale. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House, which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking controlContinue Reading

ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the Senate from Democrats, and an 87 percent chance of taking over the House. We could almost have turned our servers off and let thatContinue Reading

This year, 26 states have both a Senate and Governor’s race on the ballot, and we expect most of them to go to candidates of the same party. But there are a few exceptions: Two strong candidates from opposite parties, and the lack of a strong candidate, particularly among RepublicanContinue Reading

STEFANI REYNOLDS / AFP / GETTY IMAGES Most of the time in the U.S., we elect politicians to make policy. But every election year, some voters are confronted with making their own policy decisions. Ballot measures ask voters to weigh in directly on issues from the explosive to the mundane.Continue Reading

ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT With less than 24 hours to go until we freeze our model, we’re probably not going to see a lot more changes in the topline forecast. Republicans have a 54 percent chance of winning the Senate and an 83 percent chance in the House, according to ourContinue Reading