MANDEL NGAN / AFP via Getty Images Democrats now have a slightly bigger Senate majority but not much to do with it. And so, it’s time for more judges. Retaining the Senate means that President Biden and Senate Democrats will be able to continue nominating and confirming federal judges, and,Continue Reading

What a year 2022 has been. There was so … much … news. We saw record-high inflation, war in Ukraine, a landmark Supreme Court session, continuing effects of the pandemic, the Winter Olympics, the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the World Cup and, of course, the midterms. In typical FiveThirtyEightContinue Reading

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO AND EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES A few weeks before the midterms, I attended an election-denying group’s Zoom meeting. There had been alarming reports of a massive, well-funded campaign to place election deniers in voting centers that could cause havoc on Election Day. I wantedContinue Reading

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES Here’s a prediction that 100 percent, absolutely, positively will come true: I will get something wrong in 2023. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we make a lot of predictions every year; some of them work out, but we can’t get every single one right. Continue Reading

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, might not have any credibility as a pollster in FiveThirtyEight’s rating system, but he’s a pollster nonetheless. Kinda. Soon after he took control of Twitter in October, the once-richest person inContinue Reading