Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. That may come as a surprise to election watchers who suggested that the polls had a notable pro-Republican bias. But in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion.Continue Reading
Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated. After the 2016 and 2020 elections, when the polls had a rough year, a lot of people wanted to leave them for dead. But in 2022, polls had one of their most accurate election cycles in recent history. ButContinue Reading
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Last Saturday, a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed in Springfield, Ohio, taking out power for over 1,000 people and prompting authorities to issue a temporary shelter-in-place order for nearby residents. And no, this wasn’t the oneContinue Reading
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorusContinue Reading
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harmContinue Reading
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harmContinue Reading
Celal Gunes / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images In their first full legislative sessions after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, Republican state legislators are being pressed on what “pro-life” really means. There are plenty of bills focusing on abortion restrictions — particularly in the Republican-controlled states where abortionContinue Reading
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES Over the past 18 months, inflation has dominated our understanding of the pandemic economy. Americans have endured the highest yearly price increases in four decades, from soup to nuts — literally. Even now, as experts and forecasters worry that the economy might dipContinue Reading
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): Last weekend, conservative activists and media members alike descended on Washington, D.C., for the Conservative Political Action Conference. But all is not well in CPAC-land. Matt Schlapp, the conference’s longtime chair, isContinue Reading
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments last fall for a case challenging the use of race-conscious admissions at Harvard University; a ruling is expected later this spring or early summer. Craig F. Walker / The Boston Globe via Getty Images The origins of the affirmative action debate arguably revolved aroundContinue Reading
